Doctrine of Chances Michigan
In People v. Crawford, 458 Mich 376, 383; 582 NW2d 785 (1998), the Court accepted the "doctrine of chances" to determine if MRE 404(b) evidence satisfied the probative value prong of relevance. Id. at 392-393. "Where material to the issue of mens rea, . . . the "doctrine of chances" rests on the premise that 'the more often the defendant commits an actus reus, the less is the likelihood that the defendant acted accidentally or innocently.'" Id. at 393 (quoting Imwinkelried, Uncharged Misconduct Evidence, 3:11, p 45).
To invoke the "doctrine of chances," "the prosecutor must 'make persuasive showings that each uncharged incident is similar to the charged offense and that the accused has been involved in such incidents more frequently than the typical person.'" Id. at 394.